In previous articles, I've mentioned that I like breakers in route races. Many people don't, because they think that long races favor closers, not breakers. This is true. Dogs that can close at the end of the race are more likely to be in the money.
But the beginning of the race, where breakers get out ahead of the pack, often decides who's there at the end of the race. In other words, dogs who break and then have enough stamina to hang in long enough to close at the end, are really favored in long races.
This is why I like dogs who get out well, whether they're in long races or sprints. This said, there are some dogs who break who aren't good bets in route races. Because of the way 660 yd route races are set up, very fast breakers have a disadvantage and I'll tell you why.
They are very likely to fly the turn, because that's where the dogs break in these route races. Instead of breaking onto a nice long straightaway, like they do in sprints, the dogs come out of the boxes and go right into a turn.
Dogs who break very fast are liable to be expecting a straightaway and their momentum can carry them right off the turn. Few of them recover from this and run in the money. Most of them get back out onto the track, but just lope along at the back of the track, or attempt to catch up and fail.
This is why I scrutinize the program in route races, looking for dogs who are likely to end up going off the turn at the beginning of the race. If I see one, I look at which dog or dogs it's likely to take out with it. This is the kind of setup that can determine the outcome of a race in the first few strides. Look for this situation when you handicap route races and avoid some bad bets.
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